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KalshiKalshi· Climate and Weather

What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 16, 2026?

Pays out if the result is 5.2 or more.

Chance

38%

Buy Yes

42¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

66¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Prices from Kalshi, updated 3 minutes ago. Ends Sep 16, 11:59 PM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share

Related markets

Latest trades

  • 47 minutes agoBought no at 62¢$2
  • 1 hour agoBought no at 59¢$15
  • 3 hours agoBought no at 58¢$28
  • 3 hours agoBought no at 57¢$28
  • 3 hours agoBought no at 53¢$2
  • 3 hours agoBought no at 53¢$24
  • 3 hours agoBought no at 54¢$15
  • 3 hours agoBought no at 54¢$12
  • 7 hours agoBought no at 38¢$11
  • 7 hours agoBought no at 38¢$8
How this market is decidedShow

If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Sep 16, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.2 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies.