Kalshi · Politics

Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve before Jan 1, 2027?

Chance

Buy Yes

9.3¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

95.8¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Vol 24h

$313

as Kalshi reports it · 3 fills

Spread

5¢

round tripThin

Prices from Kalshi, updated 1 minute ago. Ends Jan 1, 3:00 PM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks

Cost of a Yes share

Latest trades

13 hours agoSold yes at 9.4¢$28
22 hours agoSold yes at 9.4¢$1
22 hours agoSold yes at 9.4¢$0
yesterdaySold yes at 9.4¢$1
yesterdaySold yes at 9.4¢$0
yesterdaySold yes at 9.4¢$0
2 days agoSold yes at 9.4¢$9
2 days agoSold yes at 9.3¢$1
2 days agoBought no at 95.8¢$3
2 days agoBought no at 95.8¢$5

Rules

How this market is decided

Settled by The New York Times, White House. Contract terms (PDF)

If Donald Trump has issued an executive order or his Administration takes an executive action (including signing a bill into law) creating a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve,” “National Bitcoin Reserve,” or any other formal government-held stockpile of Bitcoin after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. For example, if the U.S. government established a program or body that is equivalent to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for Bitcoin, or the United States Bullion Depository for Bitcoin, or if Bitcoin was held in the reserves of the U.S. Department of the Treasury like its foreign exchange and SDR holdings, then the Payout Criterion would be fulfilled. This would not include merely Bitcoin confiscated pursuant to criminal or civil enforcement proceedings.

Rule history

First recordedNo changes since.Sep 14, 5:30 PM UTC