Kalshi · Politics

Will China announce additional U.S. agricultural purchases in Sep 2026?

Open in Terminal Compare venues

Chance

73%

Buy Yes

76¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

30¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Vol 24h

$2K

as Kalshi reports it · 10 fills

Spread

6¢

round tripThin

Prices from Kalshi, updated 14 minutes ago. Ends Oct 1, 3:59 AM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks

Cost of a Yes share

Order book

Live from the venue feed · updated 54 minutes ago

Buy Yes (bids)

70¢5$4
69¢28$19
68¢200$136
30¢52$16
29¢450$131

Sell Yes (asks)

76¢15$11
77¢28$22
78¢200$156
90¢52$47
91¢130$118

Spread: 6¢
Mid: 73¢
Microprice: 71.5¢
Within 5¢: $159 · $54

More money on NoImbalance +49%More money on Yes

Latest trades

5 hours agoBought no at 28¢$56
5 hours agoBought no at 28¢$56
5 hours agoBought no at 25¢$50
5 hours agoBought no at 25¢$50
5 hours agoBought no at 25¢$50
6 hours agoSold yes at 77¢$154
6 hours agoSold yes at 77¢$154
6 hours agoSold yes at 77¢$154
6 hours agoSold yes at 77¢$154
6 hours agoSold yes at 73¢$146

Rules

How this market is decided

Settled by The New York Times, The Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters, Axios, Politico, Semafor, The Information, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC, BBC News, The Guardian, ABC News Australia, South China Morning Post, CBC (Canada), New York Times, Bloomberg, Associated Press. Contract terms (PDF)

If a listed news source reports before Oct 1, 2026 that China announced additional purchases of U.S. agricultural products during September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Additional purchases mean a new or expanded purchase commitment beyond previously announced commitments. Repetition, allocation, or fulfillment of an existing commitment does not qualify. The existing commitments include at least 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually in 2026, 2027, and 2028, and at least $17 billion of U.S. agricultural products annually in 2026 (prorated), 2027, and 2028 in addition to those soybean commitments. Predictions or negotiations alone do not qualify. Shipment, delivery, or other implementation is not required.

Rule history

First recordedNo changes since.Sep 17, 2:01 AM UTC