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KalshiKalshi· Elections

Will Texas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?

Chance

14%

Buy Yes

15¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

86¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Prices from Kalshi, updated 15 minutes ago. Ends Jan 3, 4:59 AM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share

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Latest trades

  • 29 minutes agoSold yes at 15¢$3
  • 52 minutes agoSold yes at 15¢$38
  • 52 minutes agoSold yes at 15¢$80
  • 2 hours agoSold yes at 15¢$5
  • 4 hours agoSold yes at 15¢$2
  • 6 hours agoSold yes at 15¢$9
  • 13 hours agoBought no at 86¢$7
  • 18 hours agoSold yes at 15¢$2
  • 18 hours agoSold yes at 15¢$1
  • 18 hours agoSold yes at 15¢$2
How this market is decidedShow

If Texas has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No.