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KalshiKalshi· Economics

Will U3 be 4.4% or above AND NFP growth be 50-99k for Sep 2026?

Chance

97%

Buy Yes

97¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Prices from Kalshi, updated 10 minutes ago. Ends Oct 2, 12:29 PM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share
How this market is decidedShow

If ALL of the following occur for Sep 2026: U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: 50-99k, then the market resolves to Yes. For all outcomes in this market, U3 refers to the single-decimal seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3), and NFP growth refers to the seasonally adjusted over-the-month change in total nonfarm payroll employment, as reported in thousands of jobs by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: U3 uses ECONSTAT and NFP growth uses PAYROLLS. For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified). All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period.