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Will Democrats win independents in the exit poll?

Chance

94%

Buy Yes

95¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

7¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Vol 24h

$9

as Kalshi reports it · 4 fills

Spread

2¢

round tripThin

Prices from Kalshi, updated 36 seconds ago. Ends Nov 6, 4:59 PM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share

Latest trades

  • 1 hour agoSold yes at 95¢$1
  • 3 hours agoBought no at 11¢$0
  • 3 hours agoBought no at 5¢$0
  • 3 hours agoBought no at 5¢$0

Rules

How this market is decided
Settled by CNN. Contract terms (PDF)

If the Democratic Party wins independents in the 2026 United States midterm elections, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this market, a party “wins” independents if it receives the higher reported share among that group in the national U.S. House exit poll. If the relevant parties are tied, each tied strike will receive 1/N of the Settlement Value, where N is the number of tied strikes. CNN is the primary resolution source, using the applicable figure displayed at Nov 6, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. If the figure is unavailable at that time, CNN will remain the primary source for 24 additional hours. After that, CBS and then ABC will be used, in that order, through Nov 7, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.

Rule history

  1. First recordedNo changes since.

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