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Will Republicans win independents in the exit poll?

Chance

6%

Buy Yes

7¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

95¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Vol 24h

$1.2K

as Kalshi reports it · 9 fills

Spread

2¢

round trip

Prices from Kalshi, updated 35 seconds ago. Ends Nov 6, 4:59 PM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share
Order book
Live from the venue feed · updated 7 seconds ago

Buy Yes (bids)

  • 5¢45$2
  • 4¢5,689$228
  • 3¢1,000$30
  • 2¢2,000$40
  • 1¢1,651$17

Sell Yes (asks)

  • 7¢21$1
  • 8¢51$4
  • 9¢7,700$693
  • 10¢1,100$110
  • 11¢300$33
Spread
2¢
Mid
6¢
Microprice
6.4¢
Within 5¢
$316 · $8.3K
More money on NoImbalance -93%More money on Yes

Latest trades

  • 3 hours agoBought no at 91¢$78
  • 3 hours agoBought no at 91¢$9
  • 3 hours agoBought no at 91¢$4
  • 3 hours agoSold yes at 5¢$0
  • 3 hours agoSold yes at 5¢$5
  • 3 hours agoSold yes at 5¢$10
  • 3 hours agoSold yes at 5¢$10
  • 3 hours agoSold yes at 5¢$20
  • 3 hours agoSold yes at 5¢$10

Rules

How this market is decided
Settled by CNN. Contract terms (PDF)

If the Republican Party wins independents in the 2026 United States midterm elections, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this market, a party “wins” independents if it receives the higher reported share among that group in the national U.S. House exit poll. If the relevant parties are tied, each tied strike will receive 1/N of the Settlement Value, where N is the number of tied strikes. CNN is the primary resolution source, using the applicable figure displayed at Nov 6, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. If the figure is unavailable at that time, CNN will remain the primary source for 24 additional hours. After that, CBS and then ABC will be used, in that order, through Nov 7, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.

Rule history

  1. First recordedNo changes since.

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