Kalshi· Economics

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

Pays out if the result is above 4.25.

Chance

16%

Buy Yes

19¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

86¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Prices from Kalshi, updated 11 minutes ago. Ends Dec 9, 6:55 PM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks

Cost of a Yes share

If this happens, this happens tooWill the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?99¢
If this happens, this happens tooWill the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?99¢
If this happens, this happens tooWill the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?98¢
If this happens, this happens tooWill the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?98¢
If this happens, this happens tooWill the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?99¢
If this happens, this happens tooWill the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?81¢
If this happens, yours happens tooWill the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?2¢
If this happens, yours happens tooWill the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?2¢
If this happens, yours happens tooWill the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?1¢

Latest trades

12 minutes agoBought no at 87¢$9
12 minutes agoBought no at 86¢$3
28 minutes agoBought no at 86¢$2
28 minutes agoBought no at 85¢$1
28 minutes agoBought no at 86¢$13
29 minutes agoBought no at 85¢$1
29 minutes agoBought no at 83¢$35
29 minutes agoBought no at 84¢$336
29 minutes agoBought no at 83¢$3
29 minutes agoBought no at 82¢$3

How this market is decidedShow

If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 4.25% following the Federal Reserve's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Dec 9, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.

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