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KalshiKalshi· Politics

Will Chancellor of Germany be the first to leave office?

Chance

38%

Buy Yes

43¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

67¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Prices from Kalshi, updated 38 seconds ago. Ends Jan 1, 3:00 PM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share

Latest trades

  • 1 hour agoSold yes at 42¢$0
  • 1 hour agoSold yes at 43¢$4
  • 1 hour agoSold yes at 40¢$0
  • 1 hour agoSold yes at 41¢$2
  • 1 hour agoSold yes at 43¢$2
  • yesterdaySold yes at 30¢$191
How this market is decidedShow

If the individual holding the title of Chancellor of Germany at the time of Issuance is the first within G7 leaders to leave their position, then the market resolves to Yes. The individual must actually leave office and no longer hold their title. An announcement of resignation or intention to leave is not sufficient. In the event of death, the market will resolve to the last traded price prior to death, unless such a price is not available, not logically consistent, or not representative of a fair settlement value, in which case the Exchange may determine a fair value in its sole discretion.