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KalshiKalshi· Science and Technology

Will Google release Gemini 4 before Oct 1, 2026?

Chance

6%

Buy Yes

7¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

96¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Prices from Kalshi, updated 10 minutes ago. Ends Oct 1, 3:59 AM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share

Latest trades

  • 5 hours agoSold yes at 7¢$1
  • 9 hours agoBought no at 93¢$186
  • 21 hours agoBought no at 91¢$137
  • yesterdayBought no at 90¢$85
  • yesterdayBought no at 90¢$14
  • yesterdaySold yes at 12¢$12
  • yesterdaySold yes at 13¢$11
  • yesterdaySold yes at 12¢$0
  • yesterdaySold yes at 12¢$3
  • yesterdaySold yes at 12¢$2
How this market is decidedShow

If Google releases Gemini 4 before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.