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KalshiKalshi· Politics

Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 2 and 4%?

Pays out if the result is 2 to 4.

Chance

4%

Buy Yes

4.5¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

95.7¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Prices from Kalshi, updated 5 minutes ago. Ends Nov 3, 1:59 PM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share

Related markets

Latest trades

  • 4 hours agoSold yes at 4.5¢$1
  • 4 hours agoSold yes at 4.6¢$9
  • 4 hours agoSold yes at 4.5¢$12
  • 4 hours agoSold yes at 4.4¢$22
  • 4 hours agoSold yes at 4.4¢$4
  • yesterdayBought no at 95.7¢$1
  • yesterdaySold yes at 5¢$10
  • yesterdayBought no at 95.5¢$4,754
  • yesterdayBought no at 95.2¢$21
How this market is decidedShow

If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 2 and 4 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election. The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.