2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
The market resolves based on the popular vote margin of victory for the House of Representatives in the 2026 US midterms.
Kalshi$736 traded 24hEnds Nov 3, 2027Outcomes
Yes pays $1 if it happens · best price highlighted
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Last 24h | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats, 8 to 10% | 25% | — | 25¢ | |
| Democrats, 6 to 8% | 23% | — | 23¢ | |
| Democrats, 10 to 12% | 20% | — | 20¢ | |
| Democrats, 4 to 6% | 10% | — | 11¢ | |
| Democrats, 12 to 14% | 9% | — | 9.2¢ | |
| Republicans win | 8% | — | 7.9¢ | |
| Democrats, 2 to 4% | 4% | — | 4.5¢ | |
| Democrats, 0 to 2% | 4% | — | 3.9¢ | |
| Democrats, 14 to 16% | 3% | — | 3.4¢ | |
| Democrats, 16% and above | 1% | — | 1.8¢ |
Democrats, 8 to 10%
25%
—Yes price on Kalshi, last 2 weeks
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