Kalshi· Elections

Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 4 percentage points?

Pays out if the result is 4 or more.

Chance

82%

Buy Yes

82¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

19¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Prices from Kalshi, updated 3 minutes ago. Ends Feb 3, 3:00 PM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks

Cost of a Yes share

If this happens, this happens tooWill Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 2 percentage points?89¢
If this happens, yours happens tooWill Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 10 percentage points?28¢
If this happens, yours happens tooWill Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 12 percentage points?13¢
If this happens, yours happens tooWill Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 14 percentage points?5¢
If this happens, yours happens tooWill Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 16 percentage points?3¢
If this happens, yours happens tooWill Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 6 percentage points?70¢
If this happens, yours happens tooWill Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 8 percentage points?51¢

How this market is decidedShow

If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 4 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes. The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election. The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote.

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