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KalshiKalshi· Elections

Will at least 5 the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026?

Pays out if the result is 5 or more.

Chance

56%

Buy Yes

57¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

45¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Prices from Kalshi, updated 9 minutes ago. Ends Dec 31, 3:00 PM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share

Related markets

Latest trades

  • 58 minutes agoBought no at 55¢$4
  • 58 minutes agoBought no at 46¢$92
  • yesterdayBought no at 54¢$12
  • yesterdayBought no at 46¢$12
  • yesterdayBought no at 47¢$39
  • yesterdayBought no at 55¢$29
How this market is decidedShow

If at least 5 members of the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Members count as losing re-election if they actively seek re-election (by filing candidacy or appearing on ballot) but fail to win. This includes losses in primaries, general elections, runoffs, retention elections, or recalls. Members who retire, withdraw before primaries, die, resign, or are disqualified do not count as losses. If redistricting forces two group members against each other, the loser counts. Members who switch parties after issuance remain part of the original group. If a member loses their party primary but wins as an independent, they did not lose re-election.