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How many Republican senators will lose reelection in 2026?

The number of Republican senators who lose their reelection bids in 2026 determines the outcome.

KalshiKalshi$422 traded 24hEnds Dec 31, 2026

Outcomes

Yes pays $1 if it happens · best price highlighted

OutcomeChance24hKalshiKalshi
5 or more56%58¢
Exactly 426%28¢
Exactly 316%17¢
Exactly 29%9.9¢

5 or more

56%

Yes price on Kalshi, last 2 weeks

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