Will the margin of victory for AfD in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election be at least 3%?

If the margin of victory for AfD in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election is at or above 3%, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin is AfD’s share of valid statewide second votes minus the share of the next-highest party if AfD finishes first, or minus the first-place party’s share if AfD loses. Party ranking by statewide second votes applies; the multi-winner candidate rule does not apply to this party-list margin. First votes and seats won are not used. The margin is positive for a win, negative for a loss, and zero for a tie for first. No rounding is applied. Each threshold includes its lower bound and the maximum possible margin of 100 percentage points. An exact tie for first that remains unresolved by expiration receives the proportional payout specified in the full rules for every range containing zero; other ranges resolve No. Certified results, the Fully-Conducted Elections provision, and accelerated resolution apply as specified in the full rules.