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Will Argentine prosecutors formally accuse Navitas or its executives over Sea Lion before Jan 1, 2027?

Chance

44%

Buy Yes

48¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

61¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Vol 24h

$414

as Kalshi reports it · 3 fills

Spread

round tripThin

Prices from Kalshi, updated 2 minutes ago. Ends Jan 1, 4:59 AM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share

Latest trades

  • 60 minutes agoSold yes at 42¢$84
  • 60 minutes agoSold yes at 88¢$12
  • 3 hours agoBought no at 59¢$118

Rules

How this market is decided

If any party identified in an Argentine prosecutor's formal criminal accusation concerning Sea Lion oil development as Navitas Petroleum LP, Navitas Petroleum Development & Production Ltd., Navitas Petroleum Atlantic United, or a director, manager, or administrator of one of those entities has been formally charged with any crime in Argentina after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The qualifying act is an Argentine prosecutor's filing of a requerimiento fiscal de elevación a juicio under Article 347 of the Código Procesal Penal de la Nación, naming a covered party and specifying the alleged crime concerning Sea Lion oil development. This is the formal prosecutorial accusation requesting trial. Covered parties are the three named Navitas entities and persons the qualifying document identifies as their directors, managers, or administrators involved in the Sea Lion conduct. Non-executive representatives or agents are not included solely because of that status. A pre-existing denuncia, an Article 188 requerimiento de instrucción, an investigative request, an indagatoria, or a judge's auto de procesamiento does NOT qualify. The complaint already filed before Issuance does NOT count. Formal charges require the filing of a criminal complaint, information, or indictment with an appropriate court. Arrests without charges, being named as a target of investigation, civil lawsuits, and administrative actions do not constitute charges. Traffic violations that don't require court appearances and sealed charges that remain sealed through the deadline also don't count. If charges are filed and then dismissed before the deadline, the market still resolves to Yes. Pre-trial diversion agreements involving formal charges count as charges. For groups of individuals, charges against any member of the specified group trigger the criterion.

Rule history

  1. First recordedNo changes since.

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