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KalshiKalshi· Economics

Will there be exactly 1 Fed rate hike in 2026?

Pays out if the result is 1 to 1.

Chance

21%

Buy Yes

22¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

80¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Prices from Kalshi, updated 1 minute ago. Ends Jan 3, 3:00 PM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share

Related markets

Latest trades

  • 38 minutes agoBought no at 78¢$78
  • 60 minutes agoSold yes at 23¢$1
  • 1 hour agoSold yes at 23¢$2
  • 1 hour agoSold yes at 23¢$9
  • 2 hours agoSold yes at 25¢$9
  • 2 hours agoSold yes at 24¢$8
  • 2 hours agoSold yes at 25¢$3
  • 2 hours agoSold yes at 25¢$5
  • 3 hours agoSold yes at 25¢$3
  • 3 hours agoBought no at 77¢$154
How this market is decidedShow

If the number of rate hikes by the Federal Open Market Committee during calendar year 2026 is exactly 1, then the market resolves to Yes. Please note the following definition of a "rate hike": A single ‘hike’ is considered an increase in the upper bound by at least 1 basis point and up to and including 25 basis points. An increase of the upper bound of the target range 26-50 basis points hike is considered two hikes. An increase of the upper bound of the target range 51-75 basis points is considered three hikes.