Kalshi· Economics

Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 4.50%?

Pays out if the result is above 4.5.

Chance

96%

Buy Yes

97¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

6¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Prices from Kalshi, updated 7 minutes ago. Ends Sep 30, 7:29 PM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks

Cost of a Yes share

If this happens, this happens tooWill UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 3.20%?—
If this happens, this happens tooWill UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 3.30%?—
If this happens, this happens tooWill UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 3.40%?—
If this happens, this happens tooWill UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 3.50%?—
If this happens, this happens tooWill UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 3.60%?—
If this happens, this happens tooWill UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 3.70%?—
If this happens, this happens tooWill UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 3.80%?—
If this happens, this happens tooWill UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 3.90%?—
If this happens, this happens tooWill UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 4.00%?—
If this happens, this happens tooWill UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 4.10%?—
If this happens, this happens tooWill UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 4.20%?—
If this happens, this happens tooWill UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 4.30%?—

Latest trades

11 hours agoBought no at 11¢$1
yesterdayBought no at 5¢$2
yesterdayBought no at 5¢$3
yesterdayBought no at 9¢$0
yesterdayBought no at 10¢$3

How this market is decidedShow

If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (2 Yr) for Sep 30, 2026 (end of Q3 2026) is above 4.50%, then the market resolves to Yes.