Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is 48% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's share of the valid votes cast in the first round, calculated as votes received divided by total valid votes cast, times 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided by the Fully-Conducted Elections and Accelerated Resolution provisions in the Contract, resolution uses certified official results from the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, not preliminary results. Invalid, spoiled, blank, and rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used.