Will Natalie Fleming receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the 2026 Idaho Senate election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Natalie Fleming in the 2026 Idaho Senate election is 2% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Natalie Fleming ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator.