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KalshiKalshi· Elections

Will Li Qiang become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?

Chance

14%

Buy Yes

14¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

87¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Prices from Kalshi, updated 10 minutes ago. Ends Jan 1, 4:59 AM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share

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Latest trades

  • 1 hour agoBought no at 87¢$1
  • 3 hours agoSold yes at 14¢$0
  • 3 hours agoBought no at 87¢$1
  • 5 hours agoSold yes at 14¢$0
  • 6 hours agoBought no at 87¢$1
How this market is decidedShow

If Li Qiang is announced as the first new non-interim leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves when the first new non-interim leader is officially announced by the party or credible sources. The person need not have taken office before the deadline date, only be announced as the incoming leader. Interim or acting leaders do not qualify unless they are subsequently announced as the permanent leader. If multiple persons are simultaneously announced as co-leaders, the market resolves proportionally. Leadership contests that extend beyond the deadline date without an announcement resolve to No. The announcement must come from official party channels or be confirmed by multiple credible news sources.