Polymarket· Climate & Science · Earthquakes · Weather · Natural Disasters

Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?

Chance

54%

Buy Yes

64¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

56¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Prices from Polymarket, updated 24 minutes ago. Ends Jan 1, 4:59 AM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks

Cost of a Yes share

Can’t both happenWill there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?1.1¢
Can’t both happenWill there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?53¢
Can’t both happenWill there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?9.3¢
Can’t both happenWill there be exactly 3 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?7.7¢
Can’t both happenWill there be exactly 4 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?0.7¢