Which countries will Trump make formal trade deals with in 2026?
The market resolves based on which countries Donald Trump makes formal trade deals with in 2026.
Kalshi$0 traded 24hEnds Jan 1, 2027Outcomes
Yes pays $1 if it happens · best price highlighted
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Last 24h | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taiwan | 8% | — | 11¢ | |
| China | 14% | — | 16¢ | |
| India | 14% | — | 17¢ | |
| Argentina | 11% | — | 12¢ | |
| United Kingdom | 10% | — | 12¢ | |
| European Union | 10% | — | 11¢ | |
| Indonesia | 9% | — | 12¢ | |
| Switzerland | 7% | — | 10¢ | |
| Kenya | 6% | — | 7¢ |
Taiwan
8%
—Yes price on Kalshi, last 2 weeks
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