Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor?
Whether Friedrich Merz is out as Chancellor by a specific date determines the outcome.
- Leading
- Before Oct 1, 20264%
- Trades on
Kalshi- Vol 24h
- $2.8K
- Spread
- 1¢round trip on Before Oct 1, 2026
- Ends
- Sep 30, 2026
Outcomes
Yes pays $1 if it happens · best price highlighted
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Last 24h | Vol 24h | Spread | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 4% | −95¢ | $2.8K | 1¢ | 4¢ | |
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 69% | — | — | 8¢Thin | 73¢ | |
| Before Jul 1, 2028 | 62% | — | — | 6¢Thin | 65¢ | |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 56% | — | — | 5¢Thin | 58¢ | |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 44% | — | — | 1¢Thin | 44¢ | |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 33% | — | — | 1¢Thin | 33¢ | |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 23% | — | — | 1¢Thin | 23¢ | |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 11% | — | — | 4¢Thin | 13¢ |
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Discussion
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