When will a reconciliation bill become law?
The date a reconciliation bill becomes law will determine the outcome.
KalshiEnds Oct 1, 2026Outcomes
Yes pays $1 if it happens · best price highlighted
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Last 24h | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 40% | — | 44¢ | |
| Before Jul 1, 2028 | 32% | — | 36¢ | |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 31% | — | 35¢ | |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 30% | — | 34¢ | |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 29% | — | 33¢ | |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 2% | — | 2¢ |
Before Jan 1, 2029
40%
—Yes price on Kalshi, last 2 weeks
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