Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?
The market resolves based on specific outcomes related to the USMCA agreement occurring in 2026.
KalshiEnds Dec 31, 2026Outcomes
Yes pays $1 if it happens · best price highlighted
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Last 24h | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S.–Mexico interim agreement | 35% | — | 39¢ | |
| U.S.–Canada interim agreement | 31% | — | 35¢ | |
| Trilateral revised deal | 25% | — | 29¢ | |
| Formal USMCA amendment | 19% | — | 22¢ | |
| U.S. withdrawal notice | 14% | — | 18¢ | |
| Formal 16-year extension | 14% | — | 16¢ | |
| Mexican withdrawal notice | 10% | — | 13¢ | |
| Canadian withdrawal notice | 9% | — | 13¢ |
U.S.–Mexico interim agreement
35%
—Yes price on Kalshi, last 2 weeks
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