Kalshi· Elections
Will the margin of victory for Renan Santos in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election be above 0%?
Prices from Kalshi, updated 7 minutes ago. Ends Oct 4, 2:00 PM UTC.
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How this market is decidedShow
If the margin of victory for Renan Santos in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election falls within 0% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the vote share received by Renan Santos minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Renan Santos if Renan Santos wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Renan Santos loses. If Renan Santos wins, the margin will be positive; if Renan Santos loses, the margin will be negative; if Renan Santos ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Renan Santos runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.