Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
The market resolves based on the margin of victory for a candidate in the first round of the Brazil Presidential Election.
Kalshi$55 traded 24hEnds Oct 4, 2027Outcomes
Yes pays $1 if it happens · best price highlighted
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Last 24h | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lula da Silva, 0-5% | 46% | — | 46¢ | |
| Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-5% | 25% | — | 26¢ | |
| Lula da Silva, 5-10% | 17% | — | 18¢ | |
| Lula da Silva, 10-15% | 7% | — | 7¢ | |
| Flávio Bolsonaro, 5-10% | 7% | — | 9¢ | |
| Lula da Silva, ≥15% | 3% | — | 3¢ | |
| Renan Santos wins | 2% | — | 2¢ | |
| Flávio Bolsonaro, 10-15% | 1% | — | 1¢ | |
| Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥15% | 1% | — | 1¢ | |
| Fernando Haddad wins | 1% | — | 1¢ | |
| Romeu Zema wins | 1% | — | 1¢ |
Lula da Silva, 0-5%
46%
—Yes price on Kalshi, last 2 weeks
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