Will Republicans receive above 16% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

If the Republican share of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 16%, then the market resolves to Yes. The value is the percentage shown in the Republican (or Rep.) column of the aggregate Black row in the national U.S. House exit poll table. The primary resolution source is the CNN figure displayed at exactly 12:00 PM ET on November 6, 2026. If unavailable, CNN remains the primary source for 24 hours after that time. If it remains unavailable, use CBS News followed by ABC News through 11:59 PM ET on November 7, 2026.