Kalshi · Politics

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before December 1, 2026?

Open in Terminal

Chance

Buy Yes

9¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

92¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Vol 24h

$8K

as Kalshi reports it · 40 fills

Spread

1¢

round trip

Prices from Kalshi, updated 13 minutes ago. Ends Dec 1, 2:59 PM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks

Cost of a Yes share

Order book

Live from the venue feed · updated 1 minute ago

Buy Yes (bids)

8¢4,494$359
7¢6,915$484
6¢1,579$95
5¢20,803$1K
4¢33,097$1.3K

Sell Yes (asks)

9¢22,186$2K
10¢1,493$149
11¢1,181$130
12¢2,901$348
13¢2,631$342

Spread: 1¢
Mid: 8.5¢
Microprice: 8.2¢
Within 5¢: $3.4K · $27.9K

More money on NoImbalance -78%More money on Yes

Latest trades

26 minutes agoSold yes at 9¢$5
26 minutes agoSold yes at 9¢$19
2 hours agoBought no at 92¢$479
2 hours agoBought no at 92¢$18
6 hours agoSold yes at 9¢$3
6 hours agoSold yes at 9¢$4
7 hours agoBought no at 92¢$5
15 hours agoSold yes at 10¢$0
16 hours agoBought no at 92¢$17
16 hours agoBought no at 92¢$1,499

Rules

How this market is decided

Settled by IMF PortWatch, the Statistical Review of World Energy. Contract terms (PDF)

If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before December 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Rule history

First recordedNo changes since.Sep 14, 5:32 PM UTC