When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

The market resolves based on the date when traffic at the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal.

Kalshi$40.5K traded 24hEnds Jul 21, 2026

Outcomes

Yes pays $1 if it happens · best price highlighted

Outcome	Chance	24h	Kalshi
Before Oct 1, 2026	1%	−1¢	1¢
Before Nov 1, 2026	6%	−1¢	6¢
Before Jul 1, 2027	44%	−2¢	45¢
Before Jan 1, 2027	13%	−1¢	14¢
Before Apr 1, 2027	33%	−2¢	33¢
Before Jul 1, 2028	65%	—	65¢
Before Jan 1, 2029	70%	—	70¢
Before Jan 1, 2028	56%	—	57¢
Before Dec 1, 2026	9%	—	9¢
Before Aug 1, 2026	—	—	—
Before Aug 15, 2026	—	—	—
Before Jul 15, 2026	—	—	—
Before Sep 1, 2026	—	—	—

−1¢

Yes price on Kalshi, last 2 weeks

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