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geopolitics

40+ markets across Kalshi and Polymarket, $387.2K traded today.

MarketChance24hBest priceVolume 24h
Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?JD VancePoliticsEnds Dec 31, 202612%+2¢Polymarket12.2¢$59K
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?September 30PoliticsEnds Sep 15, 20265%0¢Polymarket5.2¢$46.9K
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?PoliticsEnds Dec 30, 20264%0¢Polymarket3.9¢$45.7K
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?Before Oct 1, 2026PoliticsEnds Jul 21, 20261%−1¢Kalshi1¢$40.4K
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?October 31PoliticsEnds Sep 21, 202637%+2¢Polymarket38¢$28.1K
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/14 - 9/20)Above 50PoliticsEnds Sep 22, 20263%−5¢Kalshi4¢$20.7K
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?PoliticsEnds Sep 30, 20261%0¢Polymarket0.9¢$19.2K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?PoliticsEnds Sep 14, 2026<1%0¢Polymarket0.1¢$15.3K
Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?Before 2027PoliticsEnds Jan 1, 20274%−1¢Kalshi3.9¢$14.1K
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?OtherEnds Dec 31, 20269%+1¢Polymarket9¢$11.8K
Houthis enter Aden by...?September 30OtherEnds Sep 30, 202614%+1¢Polymarket15¢$9.7K
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?September 30OtherEnds Sep 30, 20261%0¢Polymarket1.3¢$9K
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/14 - 9/20)Above 25PoliticsEnds Sep 22, 20262%−2¢Kalshi2¢$8.9K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?PoliticsEnds Sep 29, 20261%0¢Polymarket1.4¢$8.6K
Iran full airspace closure by...?September 30OtherEnds Sep 30, 20266%−1¢Polymarket6¢$6.5K
Israel military action against Yemen by...?September 30OtherEnds Sep 30, 20264%−3¢Polymarket4.2¢$5.6K
Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)December 31PoliticsEnds Sep 30, 202622%−74¢Polymarket22¢$5.6K
Will Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by...?October 31PoliticsEnds Oct 31, 202694%+3¢Polymarket94.6¢$3.2K
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?December 31PoliticsEnds Dec 31, 20266%0¢Polymarket6¢$2.5K
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?ChinaPoliticsEnds Dec 31, 202652%−5¢Polymarket52¢$2.5K
NATO x Russia military clash by...?October 31PoliticsEnds Oct 31, 202612%−1¢Polymarket12¢$2.3K
Will Russia enter Stavky by...?PoliticsEnds Sep 30, 202625%+2¢Polymarket25¢$2.2K
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by...?December 31OtherEnds Sep 30, 202627%—Polymarket27¢$1.9K
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/14 - 9/20)Above 175PoliticsEnds Sep 22, 202653%—Kalshi53¢$1.8K
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?PoliticsEnds Dec 31, 202712%0¢Polymarket12¢$1.5K
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 14?20-24OtherEnds Sep 20, 202628%—Polymarket29¢$1.5K
Will Iran target an Arab country by...?September 15PoliticsEnds Sep 15, 20267%—Polymarket10¢$1.3K
Will Russia target Kyiv on...?September 16OtherEnds Sep 7, 202699%—Polymarket99.9¢$1.3K
Will the US take control of any part of Greenland?Before January 21, 2029PoliticsEnds Jan 1, 202722%−4¢Kalshi23¢$1.2K
Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...?September 15PoliticsEnds Sep 15, 20262%+1¢Polymarket3¢$1.1K
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 14?<170OtherEnds Sep 20, 202643%—Polymarket44¢$1.1K
Will any country leave NATO by...?PoliticsEnds Dec 31, 20263%+1¢Polymarket3.2¢$967
France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by...?December 31OtherEnds Sep 30, 20266%—Polymarket6¢$820
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of September?0-5PoliticsEnds Sep 30, 202654%—Polymarket55¢$805
Israel military action against Lebanon on...?September 16OtherEnds Sep 16, 202694%—Polymarket96¢$790
Houthis seize an oil tanker by...?September 30OtherEnds Sep 15, 20264%—Polymarket3.9¢$758
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?PoliticsEnds Dec 31, 20264%—Polymarket4¢$732
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?PoliticsEnds Nov 30, 202612%—Polymarket13¢$726
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?PoliticsEnds Dec 30, 20265%—Polymarket6.3¢$667
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by...?December 31PoliticsEnds Sep 30, 202661%—Polymarket61¢$517