Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement?
The market resolves based on whether OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement by the specified dates.
- Leading
- Before Jan 1, 202718%
- Trades on
Kalshi- Vol 24h
- $235Thin
- Spread
- 3¢round trip on Before Jan 1, 2027
- Ends
- Dec 31, 2026
Outcomes
Yes pays $1 if it happens · best price highlighted
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Last 24h | Vol 24h | Spread | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 18% | — | $235 | 3¢Thin | 19¢ | |
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 70% | — | — | 5¢Thin | 72¢ | |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 55% | — | — | 5¢Thin | 57¢ |
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