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Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 39.8 on Sep 18, 2026?

Pays out if the result is 39.8 to 39.8.

Chance

13%

Buy Yes

15¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

88¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Vol 24h

$132

as Kalshi reports it · 11 fills

Spread

3¢

round tripThin

Prices from Kalshi, updated 2 minutes ago. Ends Sep 18, 4:59 PM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share

Latest trades

  • 2 minutes agoBought no at 88¢$4
  • 6 minutes agoSold yes at 14¢$10
  • 6 minutes agoSold yes at 14¢$3
  • 14 minutes agoSold yes at 14¢$0
  • 14 minutes agoSold yes at 13¢$1
  • 27 minutes agoSold yes at 13¢$0
  • 42 minutes agoSold yes at 14¢$1
  • 1 hour agoSold yes at 15¢$0
  • 1 hour agoSold yes at 15¢$0
  • 2 hours agoSold yes at 19¢$3

Rules

How this market is decided
Settled by RealClearPolitics. Contract terms (PDF)

If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 39.8% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" will be the sole resolution source for this event.

Rule history

  1. First recordedNo changes since.

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