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Will Trump's RCP approval average be below 39.4 on Sep 18, 2026?

Pays out if the result is below 39.4.

Chance

5%

Buy Yes

6¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

97¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Vol 24h

$244

as Kalshi reports it · 7 fills

Spread

3¢

round tripThin

Prices from Kalshi, updated 2 minutes ago. Ends Sep 18, 4:59 PM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share

Latest trades

  • 2 minutes agoSold yes at 5¢$0
  • 20 minutes agoSold yes at 4¢$0
  • 20 minutes agoSold yes at 3¢$0
  • 20 minutes agoSold yes at 4¢$8
  • 20 minutes agoSold yes at 4¢$1
  • 20 minutes agoSold yes at 3¢$0
  • 20 minutes agoSold yes at 3¢$0
  • 6 hours agoBought no at 94¢$6

Rules

How this market is decided
Settled by RealClearPolitics. Contract terms (PDF)

If Trump's RCP approval average is below 39.4% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" will be the sole resolution source for this event.

Rule history

  1. First recordedNo changes since.

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