Kalshi · Politics

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 39.9 on Sep 18, 2026?

Pays out if the result is 39.9 to 39.9.

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Chance

Buy Yes

6¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

95¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Vol 24h

$23

as Kalshi reports it · 4 fills

Spread

1¢

round tripThin

Prices from Kalshi, updated 2 minutes ago. Ends Sep 18, 4:59 PM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks

Cost of a Yes share

Latest trades

2 minutes agoBought no at 93¢$4
2 minutes agoBought no at 93¢$1
2 hours agoSold yes at 14¢$1
2 hours agoSold yes at 18¢$2
2 hours agoSold yes at 13¢$0
4 hours agoBought no at 91¢$6

Rules

How this market is decided

Settled by RealClearPolitics. Contract terms (PDF)

If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 39.9% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" will be the sole resolution source for this event.

Rule history

First recordedNo changes since.Sep 17, 2:03 PM UTC