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Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 40.0 on Sep 18, 2026?

Pays out if the result is 40 to 40.

Chance

3%

Buy Yes

3¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

98¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Vol 24h

$97

as Kalshi reports it · 6 fills

Spread

1¢

round tripThin

Prices from Kalshi, updated 2 minutes ago. Ends Sep 18, 4:59 PM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share

Latest trades

  • 2 hours agoBought no at 97¢$5
  • 2 hours agoBought no at 98¢$19
  • 2 hours agoSold yes at 4¢$2
  • 2 hours agoSold yes at 4¢$1
  • 2 hours agoSold yes at 4¢$0
  • 3 hours agoBought no at 96¢$1

Rules

How this market is decided
Settled by RealClearPolitics. Contract terms (PDF)

If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 40.0% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" will be the sole resolution source for this event.

Rule history

  1. First recordedNo changes since.

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