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What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 18, 2026?

Pays out if the result is 5.4 or more.

Chance

56%

Buy Yes

60¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

49¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Vol 24h

$2

as Kalshi reports it · 7 fills

Spread

9¢

round tripThin

Prices from Kalshi, updated 9 minutes ago. Ends Sep 18, 11:59 PM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share

Latest trades

  • 57 minutes agoBought no at 38¢$0
  • 6 hours agoBought no at 29¢$0
  • 6 hours agoBought no at 34¢$0
  • 6 hours agoSold yes at 72¢$0
  • 11 hours agoSold yes at 84¢$1
  • 14 hours agoSold yes at 68¢$0
  • 14 hours agoSold yes at 68¢$0

Rules

How this market is decided
Settled by the United States Geological Survey. Contract terms (PDF)

If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Sep 18, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.4 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies.

Rule history

  1. First recordedNo changes since.

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