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What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 18, 2026?

Pays out if the result is 5.6 or more.

Chance

38%

Buy Yes

40¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

64¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Vol 24h

$49

as Kalshi reports it · 8 fills

Spread

4¢

round tripThin

Prices from Kalshi, updated 10 minutes ago. Ends Sep 18, 11:59 PM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share

Latest trades

  • 35 minutes agoBought no at 55¢$0
  • 6 hours agoBought no at 47¢$0
  • 6 hours agoBought no at 52¢$0
  • 6 hours agoSold yes at 58¢$0
  • 11 hours agoSold yes at 61¢$29
  • 13 hours agoSold yes at 51¢$0
  • 14 hours agoSold yes at 52¢$0
  • 14 hours agoSold yes at 52¢$0

Rules

How this market is decided
Settled by the United States Geological Survey. Contract terms (PDF)

If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Sep 18, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.6 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies.

Rule history

  1. First recordedNo changes since.

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