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What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 18, 2026?

Pays out if the result is 6 or more.

Chance

18%

Buy Yes

18¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

83¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Vol 24h

$4

as Kalshi reports it · 9 fills

Spread

1¢

round tripThin

Prices from Kalshi, updated 10 minutes ago. Ends Sep 18, 11:59 PM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share

Latest trades

  • 35 minutes agoBought no at 78¢$0
  • 6 hours agoBought no at 73¢$0
  • 6 hours agoBought no at 73¢$0
  • 6 hours agoSold yes at 28¢$0
  • 6 hours agoSold yes at 30¢$0
  • 10 hours agoBought no at 72¢$0
  • 10 hours agoBought no at 72¢$0
  • 12 hours agoSold yes at 29¢$0
  • 14 hours agoSold yes at 22¢$0

Rules

How this market is decided
Settled by the United States Geological Survey. Contract terms (PDF)

If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Sep 18, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.0 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies.

Rule history

  1. First recordedNo changes since.

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