Skip to content
Back to eventKalshiKalshi · Climate and Weather

What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 18, 2026?

Pays out if the result is 6.4 or more.

Chance

10%

Buy Yes

11¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

91¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Vol 24h

$114

as Kalshi reports it · 8 fills

Spread

2¢

round tripThin

Prices from Kalshi, updated 10 minutes ago. Ends Sep 18, 11:59 PM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share

Latest trades

  • 1 hour agoBought no at 91¢$91
  • 3 hours agoBought no at 90¢$0
  • 6 hours agoSold yes at 11¢$0
  • 6 hours agoSold yes at 12¢$0
  • 6 hours agoSold yes at 11¢$0
  • 10 hours agoSold yes at 11¢$0
  • 12 hours agoSold yes at 11¢$0
  • 14 hours agoSold yes at 7¢$0

Rules

How this market is decided
Settled by the United States Geological Survey. Contract terms (PDF)

If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Sep 18, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.4 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies.

Rule history

  1. First recordedNo changes since.

Keep going