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federal reserve

40+ markets across Kalshi and Polymarket, $10.1M traded today.

MarketChance24hBest priceVolume 24h
Fed decision in Sep 2026?Hike 25bpsEconomicsEnds Sep 16, 202686%−1¢Kalshi86¢$4.5M
Fed Decision in September?25 bps increasePoliticsEnds Sep 15, 202688%−2¢Polymarket88¢$4.5M
Fed Decision in October?No changePoliticsEnds Oct 28, 202664%+3¢Polymarket64¢$274.4K
Next Fed rate hike?Before 2027EconomicsEnds Dec 31, 202699%+1¢—$204K
Fed rate hike in 2026?PoliticsEnds Dec 8, 202696%+1¢Polymarket96.7¢$104.7K
How many dissenting votes at the September Fed meeting?0EconomicsEnds Sep 16, 202637%+2¢Kalshi38¢$86.1K
Fed rate hike by...?September MeetingEconomicsEnds Dec 8, 202686%−2¢Polymarket87¢$81.1K
Fed decision in Oct 2026?Fed maintains rateEconomicsEnds Oct 28, 202663%+1¢Kalshi63¢$62.6K
Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?Above 3.75%EconomicsEnds Sep 16, 202686%−1¢Kalshi87¢$51.6K
Number of rate cuts in 2026?Exactly 0 cutsEconomicsEnds Dec 31, 202691%−1¢Kalshi91.2¢$26.6K
Fed Decision in December?25 bps increasePoliticsEnds Dec 9, 202661%0¢Polymarket61¢$21.6K
September 2026 Fed Combo: Rate and DissentsRate: 25bp hike, Dissents: >0EconomicsEnds Sep 16, 202655%−3¢Kalshi56¢$17.7K
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?2 (50 bps)EconomicsEnds Dec 31, 202648%+8¢Polymarket48¢$16.1K
Who will dissent at the September Fed meeting?John WilliamsEconomicsEnds Sep 16, 20269%+3¢Kalshi10¢$7.5K
Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)OtherEconomicsEnds Oct 28, 202690%0¢Polymarket91¢$7.4K
How many dissent at the September Fed meeting?0EconomicsEnds Sep 16, 202695%+1¢—$6.5K
Fed funds rate after Oct 2026 meeting?Above 3.75%EconomicsEnds Oct 28, 202694%—Kalshi99¢$5.9K
Fed decision in Dec 2026?Hike 25bpsEconomicsEnds Dec 9, 202659%−1¢Kalshi62¢$4.9K
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?0 (0 bps)PoliticsEnds Dec 30, 202693%0¢Polymarket93.3¢$4.7K
Number of Fed rate changes before 2027Exactly 2EconomicsEnds Dec 31, 202661%+13¢Kalshi72.1¢$4.3K
Will the Fed publish a dot plot in September 2026?EconomicsEnds Sep 16, 202692%+2¢Kalshi97¢$3.5K
Number of rate hikes in 2026?Exactly 2EconomicsEnds Jan 3, 202749%—Kalshi57¢$3.5K
Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year?EconomicsEnds Jan 1, 20276%+2¢Kalshi6.8¢$3.5K
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index in SeptemberAbove -0.50EconomicsEnds Sep 30, 20264%−15¢Kalshi4¢$3.1K
Chicago Fed National Activity Index for AugustAbove 0.00EconomicsEnds Sep 21, 202672%+22¢Kalshi78¢$2.5K
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?4.0%PoliticsEnds Dec 8, 202644%—Polymarket58.5¢$2K
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)OtherEconomicsEnds Sep 15, 202688%—Polymarket89¢$2K
Fed rate cut before 2027?EconomicsEnds Dec 31, 20269%0¢Kalshi9.3¢$2K
Fed funds rate at end of 2027Above 3.75%EconomicsEnds Dec 31, 202778%—Kalshi79¢$2K
Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?Above 4.00%EconomicsEnds Dec 9, 202682%—Kalshi83¢$1.8K
Fed rate cut by...?October 2026 MeetingEconomicsEnds Oct 7, 20263%—Polymarket3.2¢$1.4K
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?↓ 2.75%PoliticsEnds Dec 30, 20263%—Polymarket3¢$1.3K
Fed median dot plot in September 2026Above 4.0%EconomicsEnds Sep 16, 202654%—Kalshi56¢$737
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)Hike–Pause–PauseEconomicsEnds Dec 9, 202640%—Polymarket43¢$663
Fed Decision in January?No changePoliticsEnds Jan 27, 202757%—Polymarket58¢$600
Fed funds rate after Jan 2027 meeting?Above 0.00%EconomicsEnds Jan 27, 202798%—Kalshi98¢$412
Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken?Dot Plot OmittedPoliticsEnds Dec 31, 202636%—Kalshi38¢$319
What will Michelle Bowman say during remarks on bank stress testing?Stress TestCultureEnds Oct 2, 202690%—Kalshi95¢$303
Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)Above 2.3%EconomicsEnds Oct 14, 202685%—Kalshi90¢$297
Fed Funds (EFFR) at end of Q3 2026Above 3.75%EconomicsEnds Oct 1, 202699%——$285