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Will an earthquake of at least 6.8 magnitude occur worldwide before Oct 1, 2026?

Pays out if the result is 6.8 or more.

Chance

65%

Buy Yes

80¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

50¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Vol 24h

$5

as Kalshi reports it · 3 fills

Spread

30¢

round tripThin

Prices from Kalshi, updated 35 seconds ago. Ends Oct 1, 3:59 AM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share

Latest trades

  • 2 hours agoSold yes at 79¢$0
  • 2 hours agoSold yes at 80¢$1
  • 9 hours agoBought no at 29¢$1
  • 2 days agoSold yes at 83¢$4
  • 2 days agoBought no at 28¢$0

Rules

How this market is decided
Settled by USGS. Contract terms (PDF)

If an earthquake with a magnitude at least 6.8 on the Moment Magnitude Scale occurs with its epicenter in worldwide before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Rule history

  1. First recordedNo changes since.

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