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Will an earthquake of at least 7.1 magnitude occur worldwide before Oct 1, 2026?

Pays out if the result is 7.1 or more.

Chance

65%

Buy Yes

98¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

69¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Vol 24h

$27

as Kalshi reports it · 4 fills

Spread

67¢

round tripThin

Prices from Kalshi, updated 27 seconds ago. Ends Oct 1, 3:59 AM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share

Latest trades

  • 7 hours agoBought no at 58¢$3
  • 7 hours agoBought no at 57¢$6
  • 21 hours agoSold yes at 49¢$2
  • 23 hours agoSold yes at 51¢$4

Rules

How this market is decided
Settled by USGS. Contract terms (PDF)

If an earthquake with a magnitude at least 7.1 on the Moment Magnitude Scale occurs with its epicenter in worldwide before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Rule history

  1. First recordedNo changes since.

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