Skip to content
Back to eventKalshiKalshi · Climate and Weather

Will an earthquake of at least 7.4 magnitude occur worldwide before Oct 1, 2026?

Pays out if the result is 7.4 or more.

Chance

29%

Buy Yes

36¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

78¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Vol 24h

—

as Kalshi reports it

Spread

14¢

round tripThin

Prices from Kalshi, updated 35 seconds ago. Ends Oct 1, 3:59 AM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share

Latest trades

  • 2 days agoSold yes at 30¢$8

Rules

How this market is decided
Settled by USGS. Contract terms (PDF)

If an earthquake with a magnitude at least 7.4 on the Moment Magnitude Scale occurs with its epicenter in worldwide before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Rule history

  1. First recordedNo changes since.

Keep going