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Will an earthquake of at least 7.0 magnitude occur worldwide before Oct 1, 2026?

Pays out if the result is 7 or more.

Chance

47%

Buy Yes

55¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

61¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Vol 24h

$28

as Kalshi reports it · 9 fills

Spread

16¢

round tripThin

Prices from Kalshi, updated 35 seconds ago. Ends Oct 1, 3:59 AM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share

Latest trades

  • 7 hours agoSold yes at 41¢$4
  • 18 hours agoSold yes at 58¢$2
  • 18 hours agoSold yes at 53¢$0
  • 18 hours agoSold yes at 57¢$1
  • 18 hours agoSold yes at 57¢$1
  • 18 hours agoSold yes at 57¢$0
  • 24 hours agoBought no at 50¢$3
  • 24 hours agoBought no at 50¢$1
  • 24 hours agoBought no at 50¢$1
  • yesterdayBought no at 47¢$2

Rules

How this market is decided
Settled by USGS. Contract terms (PDF)

If an earthquake with a magnitude at least 7.0 on the Moment Magnitude Scale occurs with its epicenter in worldwide before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Rule history

  1. First recordedNo changes since.

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