Skip to content
Back to eventKalshiKalshi · Climate and Weather

Will an earthquake of at least 6.9 magnitude occur worldwide before Oct 1, 2026?

Pays out if the result is 6.9 or more.

Chance

71%

Buy Yes

77¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

36¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Vol 24h

$13

as Kalshi reports it · 3 fills

Spread

13¢

round tripThin

Prices from Kalshi, updated 28 seconds ago. Ends Oct 1, 3:59 AM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share

Latest trades

  • 24 hours agoSold yes at 72¢$4
  • 24 hours agoSold yes at 74¢$5
  • 24 hours agoSold yes at 73¢$1
  • 2 days agoBought no at 34¢$3
  • 2 days agoBought no at 39¢$3
  • 2 days agoBought no at 31¢$1
  • 2 days agoBought no at 31¢$0

Rules

How this market is decided
Settled by USGS. Contract terms (PDF)

If an earthquake with a magnitude at least 6.9 on the Moment Magnitude Scale occurs with its epicenter in worldwide before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Rule history

  1. First recordedNo changes since.

Keep going