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Will an earthquake of at least 7.7 magnitude occur worldwide before Oct 1, 2026?

Pays out if the result is 7.7 or more.

Chance

12%

Buy Yes

16¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

91¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Vol 24h

$60

as Kalshi reports it · 2 fills

Spread

7¢

round tripThin

Prices from Kalshi, updated 28 seconds ago. Ends Oct 1, 3:59 AM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share

Latest trades

  • 19 hours agoSold yes at 13¢$1
  • 19 hours agoSold yes at 15¢$7
  • 2 days agoSold yes at 12¢$2
  • 2 days agoSold yes at 11¢$17

Rules

How this market is decided
Settled by USGS. Contract terms (PDF)

If an earthquake with a magnitude at least 7.7 on the Moment Magnitude Scale occurs with its epicenter in worldwide before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Rule history

  1. First recordedNo changes since.

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