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Will an earthquake of at least 7.8 magnitude occur worldwide before Oct 1, 2026?

Pays out if the result is 7.8 or more.

Chance

16%

Buy Yes

22¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

90¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Vol 24h

—

as Kalshi reports it

Spread

12¢

round tripThin

Prices from Kalshi, updated 36 seconds ago. Ends Oct 1, 3:59 AM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share

Latest trades

  • 2 days agoSold yes at 12¢$3
  • 2 days agoSold yes at 12¢$0
  • 2 days agoBought no at 89¢$300

Rules

How this market is decided
Settled by USGS. Contract terms (PDF)

If an earthquake with a magnitude at least 7.8 on the Moment Magnitude Scale occurs with its epicenter in worldwide before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Rule history

  1. First recordedNo changes since.

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